As the year 2012 swings itself around the corner, all eyes are turning towards Iowa. Small, yet powerful, the Hawkeye State kicks off the Presidential Race and sets the stage for an exciting primary season every four years. Candidates emerge from the unknown and become top tier challengers in this state. Indeed, from Council Bluffs to Davenport, Iowa has long excited and enthralled politics.
This year, we have seen a highly entertaining race develop in the state. When 2008 Iowa Caucus winner Mike Huckabee passed on a 2012 run, many assumed Governor Mitt Romney would carry the state. Then emerged Michele Bachmann in June of this year and she stole the lead. Holding a narrow edge over Romney, Bachmann’s campaign and message appeared to replicate Governor Huckabee and his efforts in 2008. Once she won the Ames Straw Poll, it appeared to many that the state would fall into the Minnesotan’s hands. Then along came Rick Perry in August who took the lead for a brief time in the state. Once the debates started, though, he imploded just a few weeks after his campaign began. Herman Cain and his Godfather pizza caravan stole the show in October and the successful entrepreneur became Iowa’s favorite. As we know, allegations of sexual misconduct emerged in November and ultimately ended his candidacy. And then, just as the fog seemed to be clearing, Newt Gingrich and his wit captured the hearts of Iowans. Yet in the last few weeks, we have seen his lead erode.
Now, we enter today with three candidates fighting for victory in Iowa: Governor Mitt Romney, Representative Ron Paul, and the slowly melting Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. The American Research group reported in their December 19-22 poll a tight and shaky race. With Paul leading at 21%, Romney at 20%, and Gingrich at 19%, it seems in this poll that it could go any which way. However, other polls show a similar yet slightly different message. We Ask America’s December 20, 2011 poll showed Paul with 20%, Romney with 19%, Gingrich 16%, and Michele Bachmann hanging in the background with 15%. The Rasmussen Reports indicated a different outlook in their latest Iowa poll displaying Romney with 25%, Paul with 20%, and Gingrich with 17%. Wrapping it all into a bundle, the race seems down to Paul and Romney with Gingrich and Bachmann as the possible spoilers. Nobody should rule out Newt or Michele, but if one desires to gain an accurate reading, they should keep their eyes focused on Ron Paul and Mitt Romney.
Up to today, Ron Paul has been ticking upward in the polls. In October, the Rasmussen Reports showed Paul with only 10% of the support in Iowa. In early December, Paul’s ratings in Rasmussen Polling showed an 8 point jump and a growing base of support. Now we see the Tea Party founder in a neck and neck race with Governor Mitt Romney for first place in Iowa.
So how did Ron Paul get here?
It appears hard to tell. From the outset, he seems a highly unconventional choice for the GOP. An isolationist in foreign doctrine, Paul has startled and scared many with his views. Not at all exceptional in debating or charisma, the Representative from Texas lacks a tempting or intriguing speaking voice. His domestic views also provide reservations for many Americans. His support of the legalization of drugs, prostitution, and unpasteurized milk seem more radical than logical.
Ok, But how did Ron Paul get here?
His integrity is the best answer. Every candidate that has taken a lead in Iowa has been attacked by questions of integrity and honesty. Mitt Romney, the most fortunate of those questioned, has been accused occasionally of flip-flopping, a charge that he has managed to repel and to rebut consistently. Michele Bachmann, however, failed to explain numerous gaffes that she produced during the campaign. From her statements regarding Obama’s spending during his Presidential trip to India all the way to her claims regarding Democrats being un-American, the Minnesota Representative harmed herself significantly. Rick Perry and his cowboy caravan failed to pull the gun out of the holster before blemishes in his record emerged. His highly controversial executive order in 2007 mandating all 12 year old girls take an even more controversial HPV vaccine ended up stealing away his support from social conservatives. Along came Herman Cain who suffered the most in the category of integrity attacks. Allegations about his private life tied sand bags to his poll numbers and slowly dragged the former pizza entrepreneur to earth. Newt Gingrich of course had three wives and accepted over a million dollars in cash from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Comparatively, Ron Paul has shown exceptional integrity. Unlike other colleagues who during the Bush years supported bailouts and massive spending plans, Paul stood his ground and refused to abandon his views. His 2008 bid for the Presidency gave Ron Paul enough exposure to make him a popular choice among some Republicans. Touting his newly minted Tea Party movement, Doctor Paul as his fans referred to him won the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in both 2010 and 2011. Iowans, hungry for a man with unwavering morals, have begun to embrace Paul.
But will it be enough?
That is largely questionable and something we must wait to find out. Even with the recent support he has received, Gallup recently reported that only 39% of Republicans would be willing to accept Paul as their nominee. What Ron Paul must do to secure Iowa is clear: Refocus the race upon the flaws of the other candidates. In the category of integrity, most people can agree that Doc Paul is the solid front runner. Since his views may prove too hard for the GOP to swallow, he must make other candidates impossible to swallow in the little time he has left. One must admit that for a party that supported the Iraq War’s continuation in 2008 to change to an isolationist foreign policy would be very hard to accept. Those who feel America should maintain at least a reasonable presence in the world almost certainly would never vote for Paul.
That’s where Governor Mitt Romney comes into play. Supporting a massive military reinvestment, Governor Romney of Massachusetts has repeatedly stated his military will “be second to none” if elected and repeatedly cites the glaring threat of China as an issue. Charges of flip flopping from Governor Perry and Senator Santorum have failed to materialize as Governor Romney has given good and solid responses to each of the attacks. The Massachusetts Governor also managed to turn healthcare around on his opponents. Throughout the early primary season, candidates like Governor Tim Pawlenty and Newt Gingrich tried to hit Romney on the issue. Romney proved remarkably elusive to the grasp of these attacks and maintained solid poll numbers. Romney’s deft political touch and strong speaking skills have many believing he should be the nominee. Recently, the Massachusetts Republican has launched a wave of ads touting his strong family ethics in an attempt to swing over social conservatives. The effects of these ads seem to have been according to plan and as of late Romney has managed to rise as one of the leaders in the Iowa caucuses. The real deciding factor for Romney will be if he can get the supporters out to the precincts on the day of the caucus. That proved to be Mitt’s biggest issue in 2008. The frontrunner up until December, Romney seemed to have Iowa under his belt. But the sudden surge of Governor Huckabee put him in a neck and neck race in the polls. On Election Day, he lost by 9% in the state. Romney MUST get his fans pumped and must get them to the polls. This could be said of Bachmann and Gingrich as well. They must rally supporters and really get the adrenaline going before the caucuses.
So what is my prediction? I feel the race is between Paul and Romney with Gingrich and Bachmann waiting in the wings as alternative options. However, I do believe that Romney will probably carry the day based off the facts that his main opponent Ron Paul would be a very hard choice for conservatives accept. While libertarianism is growing, it has not yet reached the point where it is defined a safe choice by a voter. Romney, in the minds of many Republicans, is the safe choice for the party. On Election Day, I believe that Romney supporters will be thinking revenge after losing in the state of Iowa four years earlier and will come out droves. Reservations about Paul’s views I predict shall also help Romney significantly. Regardless, this will be an exciting night to watch CNN or Fox News. If you enjoy thrillers and nail biters, this is the caucus to watch.
